Iran Israel Conflict: Does Israel have a nuclear arsenal? All you may want to know

Israel’s recent strikes on Iran have renewed international focus on its own nuclear capabilities. While Iran’s nuclear ambitions are monitored and widely debated, Israel maintains a long-standing policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear arsenal. This development has raised concerns among global analysts and non-proliferation experts.

Israel Launches Strikes

Israel launched attacks on Iran on Friday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon. He stated that Israel had to act because a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a threat to the country.

According to US Senator Mark Warner, who leads the Senate Intelligence Committee, the American view on Iran’s nuclear program has not changed since March. The US intelligence community believes Iran has enriched uranium but has not decided to build a bomb.

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Israel’s Nuclear Policy

Israel has never confirmed having nuclear weapons. Experts refer to this as a policy of “opacity.” Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute now calls it “implausible deniability.”

Israel is part of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) but has not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Countries like India, Pakistan, North Korea, and South Sudan are also non-signatories.

To join the treaty, Israel would need to give up any nuclear weapons. The NPT recognizes only five nuclear states: the United States, Britain, Russia, China and France.

Historical Background

Groups like the Federation of American Scientists estimate that Israel has about 90 nuclear warheads. Due to Israel’s secrecy, it is difficult to confirm this number.

Reports suggest that Israel began developing nuclear weapons after its founding in 1948. A 1969 US government memo revealed Israel agreed not to be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the region, but the meaning remains unclear.

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Whistleblower’s Disclosures and Policy Impacts

Mordechai Vanunu, a former technician, exposed details about Israel’s Dimona nuclear site in the Negev Desert. He was later jailed for treason. He claimed his actions were meant to protect Israel from future conflict.

Groups monitoring nuclear arms argue that Israel’s lack of transparency makes it harder to promote peaceful nuclear use in the Middle East.

FAQs

Why does Israel not confirm its nuclear weapons program?
Israel follows a long-standing policy of ambiguity. This aims to maintain strategic advantage while avoiding direct international obligations or conflicts regarding nuclear disarmament.

How might Israel’s actions affect Iran’s nuclear plans?
Experts say Israel's strikes may push Iran to expand its nuclear efforts for defense, which could increase regional risks and fuel a nuclear arms race.