The Danger Of Dealing With Dictators

History repeats itself because we don’t always seem to learn from it the first time. President Donald Trump won the 2024 election on the promise of, among other things, ending the bloody and expensive war that Russia started by invading Ukraine. He said, moreover, that he would end it on day one, which he later slipped to within 100 days. He failed to do this. Anti-Trumpers would say that he lied, but it’s not a lie if he believed that he could. The surprising thing is that he actually thought he could, and if he had been president, Putin would never have invaded Ukraine. Un huh.

Mr. Trump is a real estate mogul, a former TV entertainer known for his propensity to fire anyone who disagrees with him. He is not Superman, nor is he schooled in diplomacy, foreign relations, or history. In my humble opinion, he has a somewhat inflated view of his deal-making ability. But he is not the first U.S. president to attempt to deal with dictators like Vladimir Putin. The idiocy is that we just keep trying. Russia is the largest and most populous country in Europe. It is also the largest country in Asia and in the world. It has massive land reserves which are still to be developed. It has a culture rich in music, literature, ballet, and architecture. Whatever the outcome of this vicious war, Russia is not going away. We have no quarrel with the Russian people except for the unfortunate fact that they are governed by a ruthless thug and former KGB agent who won’t hesitate to destroy an enemy.

As I said, Mr. Trump is not the first U.S. president that thought he could deal with dictators. It probably started with the weak presidency of Jimmy Carter, the 39th president, who expressed shock and surprise when the Soviet Union under Leonid Brezhnev invaded Afghanistan and extended its presence in the Middle East. The collapse of the Soviet Union after the defense build-up of Ronald Reagan was a rare opportunity to continue that build-up, as Seth Cropsey and Harry Halen recently opined in The Wall Street Journal. We did expand NATO’s jurisdiction up to Russia’s western borders which Putin considered a threat to Russia’s influence in Eastern Europe.

Under President G. W. Bush, Reagan’s VP, we fought a war of limited objectives to free Kuwait which Saddam Hussein’s Iraq had invaded but he spared Hussein’s elite forces. George W. Bush, his son, tried to finish the job under the mistaken belief that Iraq had nukes. Bill Clinton kept the peace but did nothing of consequence to rebuild our maritime forces to prevail in a major power conflict. Or two. Or three.

Barack Obama disclosed to Russian Federation President Dmitry Medvedev during the famous open mike episode that he would have “a lot more flexibility” after his re-election. Joe Biden’s presidency was a disaster. The most remarkable thing about it was that we survived it, but at great expense to our international reputation. Mr. Biden was only marginally qualified, even when he had all his mental marbles. Far from preparing us for the growing risk of conflict with China, he continued to shrink the Navy, failed to rebuild the defense infrastructure and lost control of the southern border.

Now it’s Trump’s turn to be shocked and disappointed with Putin. His next step should be to acknowledge what others have learned. You can’t deal with dictators. They lie. They cheat. They’ll do anything to stay in power. There’s no gentleman’s agreement because they are not gentlemen of goodwill. A handshake means nothing except you should wash your hands well afterward.

As defense expert retired Navy Vice Admiral Charles Martoglio recently said, neither side has to win this war, but neither side can afford to lose it. Putin’s life probably wouldn’t be worth a ruble if he did, so he will do whatever he has to do to salvage a victory out of this mess, which means keeping Crimea and the eastern areas he already occupies. That probably will never be satisfactory to Vlodymyr Zelensky, but he can’t possibly win a war of attrition against his giant neighbor who is already on a war footing.

Will sanctions work? They haven’t before. They would have to be rigidly enforced. They weren’t before. We don’t have a big enough Navy or Coast Guard. So what do we do now, Mr. President? You wanted this job. Keep in mind that Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and tremendous remote land reserves, which would probably enable it to survive a nuclear exchange.

One suggestion comes to mind. If most of Europe’s former colonial powers think that Ukraine must prevail, the burden of leadership (including the cost) should be shifted to them. Meanwhile, we can focus on Asia and ensuring that Hamas never poses a threat to anyone again.

VOL. 115, NO. 23 - June 4, 2025