The United States has told Qatar that it should expel Hamas if the group continues to reject a cease-fire with Israel, an agreement the Biden administration deems vital to easing the upheaval gripping the Middle East, a U.S. official told The Washington Post.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivered the message to Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in April, according to the official, who like others interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations.
Three diplomats familiar with the situation said officials in the Gulf emirate, which has hosted Hamas’s political leadership at America’s request since 2012, have anticipated the request for months, but those expectations sharpened in recent weeks amid mounting frustration over a prolonged impasse on the cease-fire deal. Qatari officials have advised Hamas officials - including Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s political leader who lives in Doha, Qatar’s capital - that they should devise a backup plan for residency should they need to leave, said one of the diplomats.
Potential leverage
While the Biden administration sees the threat of ousting Hamas as potential leverage over the Islamist group responsible for the Oct. 7 cross-border attack on Israel, some regional officials and analysts caution that shuttering the Hamas political office in Doha would further complicate efforts to communicate with its leaders and renew future hostage negotiations.
Blinken - who returned to the Middle East this week in a last-ditch effort to secure a deal that would halt fighting, release some of the remaining 13o or so hostages, and forestall a planned Israeli offensive in southern Gaza - has thanked Qatar for its role in mediating talks with Hamas and put the onus squarely on the militant group to accept Israel’s latest proposal.
“We are determined to get a cease-fire that brings the hostages home and to get it now, and the only reason that wouldn’t be achieved is because of Hamas,” Blinken said Wednesday in Tel Aviv. “There is a proposal on the table, and as we’ve said: no delays, no excuses. The time is now.”
A Hamas delegation is expected to visit Cairo over the weekend, potentially to respond in writing to Israel’s latest proposal, Reuters reported Friday.
After a short-lived pause in fighting in November, during which 105 hostages were exchanged for 240 Palestinian prisoners detained in Israel, Hamas refused to release any others unless Israel agreed to a “comprehensive cease-fire.” Israel has vowed the war in Gaza will not end until Hamas is defeated militarily. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week that Israeli forces would attack the group’s last stronghold in Rafah - with or without a deal.
Increasingly popular target
As negotiations have dragged on, American officials have grown more impatient with Hamas, and Qatar has become an increasingly popular target for U.S. politicians - ranging from Republican Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.) to Democratic Rep. Steny H. Hoyer (Md.), who recently said the United States would have to reevaluate its relationship with Qatar if it doesn’t apply “pressure” on Hamas to make a deal.
Other U.S. lawmakers have called on the Biden administration to force Qatar to cut ties with the group entirely.
The White House and State Department as well as CIA Director William J. Burns have encouraged Qatar, a key security partner that hosts a major U.S. military base, and Egypt, the other main interlocutor with Hamas, to lean on the group. But both countries can accomplish only so much since Hamas’s military and political wings are distinct, and any final decision on a deal rests with top military leader Yehiya Sinwar, who is believed to be in hiding in the group’s maze of tunnels beneath Gaza.
“Applying pressure to Hamas in Doha is ineffective pressure,” an official briefed on the talks said. “The problem is the guys making the decisions are in Gaza, and they don’t care where the political office is located,” this person said.
Patrick Theros, a former U.S. ambassador to Qatar, said kicking Hamas out of Qatar would be “a nightmare” for the White House, effectively foreclosing any future talks.
“We’d be cutting off our nose to spite our face,” he said.
Sent money to Gaza
The Hamas office in Qatar has been controversial since it was established as part of an arrangement supported by the United States and Israel. For more than a decade, Qatar - in coordination with Israel - sent money to Gaza to help keep the Hamas-led government afloat.
“We did not enter into a relationship with Hamas because we wanted to. We were asked by the U.S.,” Majed Al-Ansari, adviser to the Qatari prime minister and spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, said last week in a rare interview with Israeli media.
“Qatar is being used as a political punching bag for those who are looking either to safeguard their political futures or to find more votes in the next elections,” he said, an apparent jab at American politicians and Netanyahu, whom he avoided mentioning by name.
In the aftermath of the Hamas-led assault on Israel, Blinken told the Qatari emir that Doha’s relationship with Hamas, which has functioned as Gaza’s de facto government, could not be “business as usual” but privately communicated that the closure of the Hamas office could be delayed to make time for critical hostage negotiations.
Since then, U.S. officials have consistently praised Qatar’s mediation efforts. President Biden “thanked the emir and his senior team for their tireless efforts to secure the release of all hostages held in Gaza,” the White House said this week after a phone call between the two leaders.
Attacks have altered long-standing dynamics
The speculation about Hamas’s future comes as the U.S. military moves attack drones, fighter jets and other aircraft from the United Arab Emirates to Qatar after the UAE imposed restrictions on U.S. operations, according to a senior diplomat from the region. The move, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, is a fresh sign of how the Oct. 7 attacks have altered long-standing dynamics in Middle East.
U.S. forces have used UAE bases in the Middle East to stage airstrikes against Iranian-aligned groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen as Israel’s war in Gaza has raised tensions in the region to new heights. The risk of blowback for links to American military activity has unnerved some of Washington’s Arab allies, causing the Pentagon to move aircraft to al-Udeid, a major U.S. air base in Qatar, which has not imposed similar restrictions, the diplomat said.
Israel, the United States and European nations do not communicate directly with Hamas because of the group’s terrorist designation, making Qatar a vital go-between. But Qatar has grown increasingly frustrated with mounting U.S. and Israeli criticism of its ties to Hamas and announced last month that it would reevaluate its status as a mediator.
“There are limits to this role and limits to the ability to which we can contribute to these negotiations in a constructive way,” Mohammed, the Qatari prime minister and foreign minister said last month.
Netanyahu, speaking to a U.S. audience in February, said Qatar could sway Hamas like no one else. “I urge you to press Qatar to press Hamas because we want our hostages released,” he said.
In response, Qatar called Netanyahu’s comments “nothing but a new attempt to stall and prolong the war for reasons that have become obvious to everyone” - political gain.
U.S. officials have privately said should Hamas leave Doha for a country that has worse relations with Washington, such as Turkey or Lebanon, it could make resolving the Gaza crisis even more difficult. But following months of elusive hostage talks and what officials see as significant Israeli concessions, they are more comfortable with the idea of pushing for Hamas’s ouster.
Spent considerable time in Turkey
Haniyeh, the Hamas political leader, and other senior officials have spent considerable time recently in Turkey, where he has had discussions with top officials about residing there, one diplomat familiar with the talks said. Many Hamas members already have close ties to Turkey, and some have moved their families there.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has praised Hamas as a “liberation movement.” Last month, he met with Haniyeh in Istanbul, but he has publicly dismissed reports that the group might rebase to Turkey.
If NATO member Turkey did decide to host Hamas, it could inject a new element of friction into already turbulent U.S.-Turkish ties.
Gonul Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute, a Washington think tank, said Erdogan’s motivations, if he were to invite them to Turkey, could include pressure from his political base to demonstrate support for the Palestinian cause and his desire to position Turkey as an influential global mediator, as he did in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
On the other hand, Ankara must consider the certainty that such a step would inflame Turkey critics in Congress.
For Erdogan, “it’s a very complicated decision,” she said.
Egypt, meanwhile, has ruled out Cairo as a potential base for the group. And it was the closure of the Hamas office in Syria that preceded the group’s move to Qatar.
Oman, another Gulf nation, previously played a key role in mediating between the United States and Iran, but it is unclear if it would be willing to permanently host the group.
